Gloomy Gus' at the Pentagon
The Pentagon has released what is being called a gloomy report on the situation in Iraq.
From the AP:
As reported by Newsweek last month, the Bush administration allegedly has plans to pull out of Iraq in the event a "full-blown civil war" breaks out. They have also shifted away from emphasizing progress there. Combine all that with this new report on the "gloomy" situation and I think we may be seeing the lead-up to an eventual troop reduction in the near future.
Bush has taken to calling Iraq the front line in "the decisive ideological struggle of the 21st century". But such grandiose rhetoric has affectively boxed Bush into a corner. For if any troop reductions were to take place now, it would be seen as a contradiction of his claims that the security of the free world depends on victory in Iraq. Yet withdrawal may be the only trump card the Bushies have left, since polls indicate that the American people are no longer buying Bush's characterization of the conflict or their scare tactics.
The midterm elections this year will be the most decisive in some time. Should the Democrats take one or both Houses, they will have the power of subpoena. This would allow them to begin asking tough questions that up until now have been ignored by this Republican Congress. It is this fear of scrutiny that may drive Bush to weather the political storm of withdrawal in the hopes of keeping his enablers in power. This may also explain why the number of troops in Iraq have been steadily increasing.
There are now close to 140,000 in country. That's almost 15,000 more then there was a month ago. Now this increase could just be the logical result of the deteriorating situation. But I think it is far more likely that Bush may be planning to stage a faux drawdown in advance of the midterms.
Will this be the "October Surprise" everyone is expecting?
Update: Another aspect of Bush's faux withdrawal would be for the potential for a "role reversal". Say Bush were to announce that due to the worsening situation, the number of US troops will gradually be reduced (more likely it would be called a "redeployment"). While the GOP endorse the decision, the Democrats, seeking an advantage, attempt to label them as "cut and runners". As you can see, this would put the Democrats in the awkward position of seeming to support a war that has lost favor with a majority of Americans. Republicans will hammer home that the Dems are now the ones advocating the now much maligned "stay the course" doctrine. Thus the GOP benefits from troops withdrawals without suffering from the "cut and run" label they so love to foist onto the opposition.
From the AP:
Sectarian violence is spreading in Iraq and the security problems have become more complex than at any time since the U.S. invasion in 2003, a Pentagon report said Friday.
In a notably gloomy report to Congress, the Pentagon reported that illegal militias have become more entrenched, especially in Baghdad neighborhoods where they are seen as providers of both security and basic social services.
The report described a rising tide of sectarian violence, fed in part by interference from neighboring Iran and Syria and driven by a "vocal minority" of religious extremists who oppose the idea of a democratic Iraq.
Death squads targeting mainly Iraqi civilians are a growing problem, heightening the risk of civil war, the report said.
As reported by Newsweek last month, the Bush administration allegedly has plans to pull out of Iraq in the event a "full-blown civil war" breaks out. They have also shifted away from emphasizing progress there. Combine all that with this new report on the "gloomy" situation and I think we may be seeing the lead-up to an eventual troop reduction in the near future.
Bush has taken to calling Iraq the front line in "the decisive ideological struggle of the 21st century". But such grandiose rhetoric has affectively boxed Bush into a corner. For if any troop reductions were to take place now, it would be seen as a contradiction of his claims that the security of the free world depends on victory in Iraq. Yet withdrawal may be the only trump card the Bushies have left, since polls indicate that the American people are no longer buying Bush's characterization of the conflict or their scare tactics.
The midterm elections this year will be the most decisive in some time. Should the Democrats take one or both Houses, they will have the power of subpoena. This would allow them to begin asking tough questions that up until now have been ignored by this Republican Congress. It is this fear of scrutiny that may drive Bush to weather the political storm of withdrawal in the hopes of keeping his enablers in power. This may also explain why the number of troops in Iraq have been steadily increasing.
There are now close to 140,000 in country. That's almost 15,000 more then there was a month ago. Now this increase could just be the logical result of the deteriorating situation. But I think it is far more likely that Bush may be planning to stage a faux drawdown in advance of the midterms.
Will this be the "October Surprise" everyone is expecting?
Update: Another aspect of Bush's faux withdrawal would be for the potential for a "role reversal". Say Bush were to announce that due to the worsening situation, the number of US troops will gradually be reduced (more likely it would be called a "redeployment"). While the GOP endorse the decision, the Democrats, seeking an advantage, attempt to label them as "cut and runners". As you can see, this would put the Democrats in the awkward position of seeming to support a war that has lost favor with a majority of Americans. Republicans will hammer home that the Dems are now the ones advocating the now much maligned "stay the course" doctrine. Thus the GOP benefits from troops withdrawals without suffering from the "cut and run" label they so love to foist onto the opposition.
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