October Surprise: Gasoline?
Like many Americans, I too have watched as the price of gas has dropped considerably. In my area for example, gas has tumbled almost .50 cents a gallon, .30 of that in the just the last couple of weeks.
Now this drop could be attributed to the lower demand of the post-Labor Day season. But something that Tristero highlighted the other day got me thinking: is it part of a coming October Surprise?
Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard recently met with President Bush, who gave him a "heads up" of what the press should keep an eye on in the coming weeks before the election.
Here's Barnes, via Tristero (his emphasis):
Tristero then goes on to list his idea of what a potential October Surprise might look like, with a fall in the price of gas being low man on the totem pole. I agree with that and that is also unlikely that Bush put out word to "open the spigot".
Of course Bush having no way of really affecting gas prices doesn't mean he still wouldn't take credit for the fact Americans are paying less at the pump. In fact, the above quote makes me believe this is what Bush meant by his "heads up", especially in light of this.
So will a continued decline in the price of gas alone be enough to forestall a shift in Congress? Doubtful. But perhaps combined with a limited military strike on Iran and a tapping of the petroleum reserves to offset the predicted spike in crude prices such a strike would cause? Who knows.
Update: More from David Roberts.
Now this drop could be attributed to the lower demand of the post-Labor Day season. But something that Tristero highlighted the other day got me thinking: is it part of a coming October Surprise?
Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard recently met with President Bush, who gave him a "heads up" of what the press should keep an eye on in the coming weeks before the election.
Here's Barnes, via Tristero (his emphasis):
In the midterm election on November 7, Bush predicted Democrats won't win either the House or the Senate. "I believe these elections will come down to two things: one, firm belief that in order to win the war on terror there must be a comprehensive strategy that recognizes this war is being fought on more than one front, and, two, the economy." Bush said the price of gasoline, which has been falling rapidly, is one of the "interesting indicators" that the press should watch carefully. "Just giving you a heads up," he added.
Tristero then goes on to list his idea of what a potential October Surprise might look like, with a fall in the price of gas being low man on the totem pole. I agree with that and that is also unlikely that Bush put out word to "open the spigot".
Of course Bush having no way of really affecting gas prices doesn't mean he still wouldn't take credit for the fact Americans are paying less at the pump. In fact, the above quote makes me believe this is what Bush meant by his "heads up", especially in light of this.
When it comes to President Bush's approval rating - the number that measures his political health - one factor seems more powerful than any Oval Office address or legislative initiative.
It's the price of a gallon of gas.
Statisticians who have compared changes in gas prices and Bush's ratings through his presidency have found a steady relationship: As gas prices rise, his ratings fall. As gas prices fall, his ratings rise.
For some Americans, analysts speculate, gas prices provide a shorthand reading of the general state of the economy. Even though prices at the pump are largely outside the president's control, he gets credit when they fall - and blame when they rise.
So will a continued decline in the price of gas alone be enough to forestall a shift in Congress? Doubtful. But perhaps combined with a limited military strike on Iran and a tapping of the petroleum reserves to offset the predicted spike in crude prices such a strike would cause? Who knows.
Update: More from David Roberts.
Hope you're correct, of handsome one.
But many are worried the "October Surprise" is a full-out invasion of Iran.
Remember, a Navy general told TIME, Inc. that the administration had ordered the Navy to prepare for a blockade Oct. 1st. of the waterway Iran uses.
Posted by
Anonymous |
9/22/2006 06:49:00 AM
Count me amongst the "many are worried" crowd. I doubt an invasion is feasible (barring a draft), but really any military action against Iran is a bad idea. Not counting the possibility of skyrocketing crude prices, our troops in Iraq would be sitting ducks for militias seeking vengence for their Shi'a brethen.
I for one hope that my theories can be discredited as the mere rantings of someone whose read one too many Robert Ludlum novels.
Posted by
Anonymous |
9/22/2006 08:24:00 AM
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